Fuel prices retreated ahead of the increases
Singapore VLSFO closed September at USD 844 per metric tonne, up 6.5% from August. Suppliers reported tight availability despite below-average bunker demand. Prices opened October at approximately USD 793 as Gulf exports recovered, before ANL’s restoration took effect.
I expect upward pressure on freight rates to ease as Brent and the Gulf risk premium decline. Marine gas oil is likely to fall more slowly than crude, prolonging higher operating costs for feeder and coastal services. Renewed disruption around Hormuz or the Red Sea could reverse the early decline.
For carriers seeking to retain October’s increases, the timing is awkward. Fuel prices have begun retreating while customers are already securing bookings below published tariffs. Further reductions in bunker costs would strengthen their negotiating position.
Cancelled departures complicate the negotiation
MSC’s Kangaroo service remained suspended through September, while Shanghai and Qingdao omissions affected the A3X. On the ACX, half the sailings were cancelled and actual transit averaged 21.1 days against a scheduled 16.4. Berthing delays reached up to ten days at Shanghai and Ningbo.
These withdrawals restrict the alternatives available to forwarders negotiating freight rates. A lower quotation offers little advantage when the remaining departure cannot meet a customer’s delivery requirements.
There is also a financial exposure. A forwarder who commits a freight charge before securing space may face a more expensive replacement booking if the intended departure is cancelled. Depending on the customer agreement, the additional cost must either be absorbed or renegotiated.
Carriers can therefore maintain pressure on freight prices despite soft demand, while forwarders contend with fewer departures and less certainty over the cost of fulfilling customer commitments.
Carriers can defend rates while margins narrow
Hapag-Lloyd raised its 2026 guidance for the second time. In September, Maersk ordered 26 ships and CMA CGM another 12 for delivery in 2029–30, taking the global orderbook above 45% of the fleet on Linerlytica’s measure. The existing delivery programme peaks in 2028, with these latest orders extending fleet commitments beyond that point.
The near-term capacity constraint will also change as congestion at Asian ports clears. Vessels completing rotations sooner can accept additional bookings without an increase in the physical fleet. For Oceania, however, I do not expect significant tonnage to cascade into local trades until sufficient surplus capacity becomes available for deployment. The number of departures carriers operate on existing services will remain more consequential in the meantime.
My medium-term forecast is margin compression rather than a collapse in freight rates. Carriers can cancel departures to defend prices, but persistent discounting will reduce earnings per container while elevated operating costs continue to absorb revenue. Additional vessel capacity will intensify that pressure as deliveries accumulate.
October’s restorations will help establish how successfully carriers can defend their prices. Higher booked rates sustained as fuel costs retreat would demonstrate pricing power. Further discounts accompanied by sailing cancellations would indicate continued dependence on capacity withdrawals.
For forwarders, the September evidence warrants caution when pricing customer commitments against October’s announced increases. A published tariff may be negotiable, but a discounted booking offers little protection against a cancelled departure and a more expensive alternative. The terms carriers actually accept, and the services they continue to operate, deserve closer attention than the restoration notices alone.
